In 2002 the NFL introduced its 32nd franchise, the Houston Texans. With this expansion the divisions were realigned, creating 8 divisions with 4 teams in each. Since that realignment, the NFL has averaged more than one worst to first team per season. Almost every season, at least one last place team has gone on to win its respective division the following year. Here I will look back at the most recent “worst to first” team as well as look forward to the potential candidates for the 2024 season.
The most recent expansion franchise also happens to be the most recent worst to first team. In 2022, the Houston Texans finished with a record of 3-13-1 – edging out the Indianapolis Colts for the worst record in the AFC South. This poor performance was enough to get first year Texans Head Coach Lovie Smith fired, as well as secure the #2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
In comes new Head Coach and former Texans great, DeMeco Ryans. With their #2 overall pick in the NFL draft they selected the eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud. In the final game of the season, Houston once again edges out Indianapolis, this time to win the AFC South which solidified them as the latest worst to first NFL team with a record of 10-7.
Improving enough to go from last place to first sounds like an almost insurmountable feat, although it’s done more frequently than we realize. New leadership, a great rookie quarterback and a weak AFC south allowed Houston to flip their fortune and capture first place. Worst to first can happen for a variety of reasons; Is it a new front office and coaching? A rookie phenom QB or a veteran brought in as the last missing piece? A good team could have a down year due to injuries then bounce back when healthy. Or is it simply because the NFL is built on parity and there is a very minimal gap in the talent and coaching from one team to the next? The great thing about the NFL is that there is no right answer. Everyone’s thoughts and opinions are subjective and up for debate. I’ll take on the impossible task of predicting the NFL by exploring the possible worst to first teams of 2024.
Finding your franchise quarterback is the key to sustained success in the NFL. The teams who struggle to do that are often the division basement dwellers. 5 of the 8 last place teams from 2023 have drafted a QB in the first or second round within the last 2 seasons. Chicago, Washington and New England selected QBs with picks 1, 2 and 3 this past April showing their desperation for a franchise QB. Following the model of the 2023 Houston Texans, could one of these QBs be enough of a spark to turn these teams into division champions?
New England appears to just be flat out bad. They began their offseason by effectively firing the greatest pro football coach of all time and hiring one of his disciples in Jerod Mayo (we all know how that’s gone in the past). Drake Maye was selected #3 overall to be the future of the franchise but the consensus is that he is not ready to lead a successful campaign. I cannot see New England turning it around and competing for their division in 2024.
Washington and Chicago may have more reason for optimism. Both have talented offenses with explosive players at key skill positions to help assist their rookie QBs. The Commanders added Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz to an already skilled offense including wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Johan Dotson. Meanwhile, Chicago brought in D’Andre Swift and Keenan Allen to compliment DJ Moore and Cole Kmet who are both coming off productive 2023 campaigns. Chicago appears to have a stronger offensive line and defense going into the season – this makes Caleb Williams’ squad the front runner for first place out of the rookie led teams.
Arizona, Tennessee and Carolina are three more last place teams who are seeking major improvement in 2024. They all believe they have their franchise QBs in place, but that remains to be seen. Panthers number 1 overall pick started 16 games, went 2-14 in those games and looked very little like the franchise QB they had hoped for. The new offensive minded Head Coach, Dave Canales brings with him a system that revived the career of Baker Mayfield in 2023 with hopes of jump-starting Bryce Young and the Panthers in 2024. In a head scratching decision, the Tennessee Titans fired Mike Vrabel who was just the AP Coach of the Year in 2021. Offseason acquisitions of Tony Pollard, L’Jarius Sneed and Calvin Ridley were made to help surround 2nd year QB Will Levis with more support to compete with the Texans for the AFC South. Arizona seems to be a few years away from contending as they continue to rebuild around Kyler Murray in hopes to compete in the always tough AFC West. The NFL is as unpredictable as ever, but these three teams seem to have some more building to do before they’re being considered in contention as division champions.
The obvious choice appears to be the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2023 they lost franchise QB Joe Burrow to injury after 10 games, but still managed a winning record at 9-8. However, due to their strong division, they still finished in last place. Burrow has since beefed up to help stay healthy for a full season, which he has only been able to do twice in his four years in the NFL. Head Coach and de facto Offensive Coordinator Zac Taylor returns along with highly sought after Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo to once again lead the Bengals against the tough AFC North. They are easily the most likely “worst to first” team, but that means little in the unpredictable NFL.
A more nonobvious choice would be the Los Angeles Chargers. There has been no Head Coach in higher demand recently than 2023 National Champion Jim Harbaugh. Being lured back into the NFL, Harbaugh brings a .695 winning percentage plus a Super Bowl appearance with him, in just 4 years of NFL Head Coaching experience. The Chargers have never been short on talent, yet always seem to come up short in the standings. Injuries, lack of fundamentals, bone headed coaching and flat-out bad luck has held them back for years. With their new coach comes a proven strength and conditioning program, a strong winning culture and NFL experience as both a coach and a player. Though many aren’t giving them a chance, I think the Chargers will be tough to beat. I believe they will sneak up on some teams that they aren’t expected to compete with. Harbaugh will bring real toughness with a strong defense and run game. Pair that with one of the best young talents in the league at QB in Justin Herbert, and you have the recipe for success. The mountain to climb in the AFC West is the Kansas City Chiefs. Two straight Super Bowl victories and the best player in the world in Patrick Mahomes makes it feel like an impossible task to win the division, but a good defense and run game can carry a team a long way. I won’t be counting out the Chargers to make the AFC West very interesting in 2024.
The NFL is the most unpredictable league in pro sports. This is proven by the difference in winning and losing teams being so minimal. Any of these teams could flip the script and finish first in their division and one probably will. All signs point to it being Cincinnati but there are so many factors that make it a toss-up. Health, breakout players or new coaches keep the league forever changing, this is why we’re all so invested year to year. Let me know in the comments who you think has the best chance to make this giant stride and complete their journey from worst to first.
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